Final Electoral Math Projection:
Obama 281, Romney 206
Obama 303, Romney 235
3 color changes tonight, all moving in Obama’s direction. In Minnesota, SurveyUSA released a poll showing Obama ahead by 11. There have been a couple of outliers in Minnesota in the last few days on either side. In my final projection, Obama leads in MN by 6.54%. Minnesota moves from barely to leaning Obama.
4 polls were released in New Hampshire today showing anywhere from a tie to Obama +4. Almost more importantly, Rasmussen’s polls today showed Obama ahead by 2. This is in contrast to their last poll here 2 weeks ago that showed Romney up 2. It’s also important to note that there has not been a poll in New Hampshire that has shown Romney ahead in the last two weeks. With these new polls, I’ve got Obama ahead by 2.02%, just enough to move New Hampshire barely into his column.
Finally in Virginia, ground zero in my mind for prognosticators. Three new polls Rassmussen (R+2), NBC/WSJ/Marist (O+1) and PPP (O+4). 11 polls in Virginia in the last 2 weeks, 5 show Obama ahead, vs. 4 for Romney and 2 ties. My final projection has Obama ahead by 0.10% (roughly 4,000 votes).
Virginia is this year’s Indiana in my mind. In 2008, Indiana was the only state I picked incorrectly. It was largely driven by one poll that showed Sen. McCain ahead by 7 and pushed my projection in his favor in the final days. Over the last several weeks I have had Romney just barely ahead. So barely ahead, that it has been a toss-up throughout October. Obama has swept in, and just barely flipped my projection. I’m sticking with the methodology, albeit acknowledging Virginia is the state I have the least amount of confidence in.